Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Thursday 29 October, 12:45

Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht

  1. Kozakken Boys42%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Utrecht43%

1.71 expected goals for Kozakken Boys

1.54 expected goals for Utrecht

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Kozakken Boys

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Kozakken Boys attack+42%
  3. Utrecht defence−20%

Expected goals1.71

Utrecht

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Utrecht attack+46%
  2. Kozakken Boys defence−23%

Expected goals1.54

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.