Probably Football

Matches

League Cup (England)

Thursday 29 October, 14:45

Everton vs Newcastle

  1. Everton37%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Newcastle38%

1.39 expected goals for Everton

1.25 expected goals for Newcastle

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Everton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Everton attack+58%
  3. Newcastle defence−42%

Expected goals1.39

Newcastle

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Newcastle attack+107%
  2. Everton defence−56%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.2 for Everton and 4.8 for Newcastle

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Everton and 2.4 for Newcastle

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

26.9 expected

14.8 for Everton and 12.0 for Newcastle

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

21.7 expected

9.6 for Everton and 12.1 for Newcastle

  1. Over 20.5 fouls58%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls42%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.