Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Thursday 29 October, 16:00

Rubio NU vs Club Guarani

  1. Rubio NU28%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Club Guarani41%

0.88 expected goals for Rubio NU

1.18 expected goals for Club Guarani

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rubio NU

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rubio NU attack+1%
  3. Club Guarani defence−43%

Expected goals0.88

Club Guarani

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Club Guarani attack+16%
  2. Rubio NU defence−25%

Expected goals1.18

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals62%
  3. Over 2.5 goals40%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.3 for Rubio NU and 4.9 for Club Guarani

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.9 for Rubio NU and 2.4 for Club Guarani

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

27.1 expected

14.2 for Rubio NU and 12.8 for Club Guarani

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

23.1 expected

12.2 for Rubio NU and 10.9 for Club Guarani

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.