Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Thursday 29 October, 16:00

Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Libertad Asuncion53%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Sportivo Luqueno22%

1.96 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion

1.06 expected goals for Sportivo Luqueno

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Libertad Asuncion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Libertad Asuncion attack+43%
  3. Sportivo Luqueno defence−9%

Expected goals1.96

Sportivo Luqueno

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sportivo Luqueno attack+21%
  2. Libertad Asuncion defence−36%

Expected goals1.06

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.5 for Libertad Asuncion and 4.8 for Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Libertad Asuncion and 2.4 for Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

25.8 expected

14.2 for Libertad Asuncion and 11.7 for Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.5 for Libertad Asuncion and 12.4 for Sportivo Luqueno

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.