Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Friday 30 October, 21:00

Guerreros del Pacifico vs Héroes de Zaci

  1. Guerreros del Pacifico34%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Héroes de Zaci44%

1.52 expected goals for Guerreros del Pacifico

1.90 expected goals for Héroes de Zaci

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Guerreros del Pacifico

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Guerreros del Pacifico attack−3%
  3. Héroes de Zaci defence+4%

Expected goals1.52

Héroes de Zaci

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Héroes de Zaci attack+22%
  2. Guerreros del Pacifico defence+15%

Expected goals1.90

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 09:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.