Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Thursday 29 October, 07:15

Shanghai Shenhua vs Machida Zelvia

  1. Shanghai Shenhua13%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Machida Zelvia68%

0.68 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua

1.86 expected goals for Machida Zelvia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Shanghai Shenhua

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Shanghai Shenhua attack−12%
  3. Machida Zelvia defence−49%

Expected goals0.68

Machida Zelvia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Machida Zelvia attack+43%
  2. Shanghai Shenhua defence−5%

Expected goals1.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.8 for Shanghai Shenhua and 5.0 for Machida Zelvia

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.8 for Shanghai Shenhua and 2.0 for Machida Zelvia

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

24.1 expected

12.7 for Shanghai Shenhua and 11.4 for Machida Zelvia

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

22.6 expected

11.6 for Shanghai Shenhua and 10.9 for Machida Zelvia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.