Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Thursday 29 October, 07:15

Phnom Penh Crown vs Kitchee

  1. Phnom Penh Crown48%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Kitchee28%

1.66 expected goals for Phnom Penh Crown

1.27 expected goals for Kitchee

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Phnom Penh Crown

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Phnom Penh Crown attack+22%
  3. Kitchee defence−10%

Expected goals1.66

Kitchee

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kitchee attack−11%
  2. Phnom Penh Crown defence+5%

Expected goals1.27

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.0 for Phnom Penh Crown and 4.2 for Kitchee

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.3 for Phnom Penh Crown and 2.3 for Kitchee

  1. Over 3.5 cards49%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

27.7 expected

17.3 for Phnom Penh Crown and 10.4 for Kitchee

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

22.9 expected

10.3 for Phnom Penh Crown and 12.6 for Kitchee

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.