Thursday 29 October, 12:00
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- Al Shabab15%
- Draw20%
- Al-Ahli Jeddah65%
1.07 expected goals for Al Shabab
2.38 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al Shabab
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al Shabab attack+37%
- Al-Ahli Jeddah defence−48%
Expected goals1.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Al-Ahli Jeddah attack+116%
- Al Shabab defence−19%
Expected goals2.38
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Over 3.5 goals45%
- Over 4.5 goals26%
- Both teams score59%
- Al Shabab or draw35%
- Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah85%
- No draw81%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.3 expected
5.1 for Al Shabab and 4.2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah
- Over 8.5 corners55%
- Over 9.5 corners44%
- Over 10.5 corners35%
Cards
4.2 expected
2.0 for Al Shabab and 2.2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah
- Over 3.5 cards61%
- Over 4.5 cards42%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
24.0 expected
11.5 for Al Shabab and 12.5 for Al-Ahli Jeddah
- Over 20.5 shots69%
- Over 22.5 shots57%
- Over 24.5 shots45%
Fouls
25.7 expected
13.5 for Al Shabab and 12.2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah
- Over 20.5 fouls83%
- Over 22.5 fouls71%
- Over 24.5 fouls57%
Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.