Thursday 29 October, 12:00
Al Diriyah vs NEOM
- Al Diriyah29%
- Draw27%
- NEOM44%
1.08 expected goals for Al Diriyah
1.32 expected goals for NEOM
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al Diriyah
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al Diriyah attack+28%
- NEOM defence−44%
Expected goals1.08
NEOM
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- NEOM attack+37%
- Al Diriyah defence−29%
Expected goals1.32
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals22%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score54%
- Al Diriyah or draw56%
- Draw or NEOM71%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.7 expected
4.9 for Al Diriyah and 4.8 for NEOM
- Over 8.5 corners59%
- Over 9.5 corners48%
- Over 10.5 corners38%
Cards
4.3 expected
2.0 for Al Diriyah and 2.4 for NEOM
- Over 3.5 cards63%
- Over 4.5 cards44%
- Over 5.5 cards27%
Shots
24.5 expected
13.2 for Al Diriyah and 11.3 for NEOM
- Over 20.5 shots71%
- Over 22.5 shots59%
- Over 24.5 shots47%
Fouls
22.8 expected
10.9 for Al Diriyah and 11.8 for NEOM
- Over 20.5 fouls66%
- Over 22.5 fouls50%
- Over 24.5 fouls35%
Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.