Thursday 29 October, 13:45
SC Braga vs Famalicao
- SC Braga38%
- Draw30%
- Famalicao32%
1.03 expected goals for SC Braga
0.95 expected goals for Famalicao
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
SC Braga
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- SC Braga attack+33%
- Famalicao defence−49%
Expected goals1.03
Famalicao
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Famalicao attack+41%
- SC Braga defence−51%
Expected goals0.95
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals86%
- Over 1.5 goals60%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Over 3.5 goals14%
- Over 4.5 goals5%
- Both teams score46%
- SC Braga or draw68%
- Draw or Famalicao61%
- No draw70%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.2 expected
5.2 for SC Braga and 4.0 for Famalicao
- Over 8.5 corners54%
- Over 9.5 corners43%
- Over 10.5 corners34%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.6 for SC Braga and 2.4 for Famalicao
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards39%
- Over 5.5 cards23%
Shots
25.3 expected
16.0 for SC Braga and 9.3 for Famalicao
- Over 20.5 shots75%
- Over 22.5 shots63%
- Over 24.5 shots52%
Fouls
24.7 expected
13.0 for SC Braga and 11.7 for Famalicao
- Over 20.5 fouls77%
- Over 22.5 fouls64%
- Over 24.5 fouls50%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.