Saturday 31 October, 07:00
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück
- VfL Wolfsburg52%
- Draw23%
- VfL Osnabrück25%
2.05 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg
1.26 expected goals for VfL Osnabrück
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
VfL Wolfsburg
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- VfL Wolfsburg attack+81%
- VfL Osnabrück defence−25%
Expected goals2.05
VfL Osnabrück
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- VfL Osnabrück attack+14%
- VfL Wolfsburg defence−19%
Expected goals1.26
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Over 3.5 goals42%
- Over 4.5 goals24%
- Both teams score59%
- VfL Wolfsburg or draw75%
- Draw or VfL Osnabrück48%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.7 expected
6.6 for VfL Wolfsburg and 4.1 for VfL Osnabrück
- Over 8.5 corners68%
- Over 9.5 corners58%
- Over 10.5 corners48%
Cards
5.1 expected
2.5 for VfL Wolfsburg and 2.6 for VfL Osnabrück
- Over 3.5 cards74%
- Over 4.5 cards57%
- Over 5.5 cards39%
Shots
30.2 expected
18.6 for VfL Wolfsburg and 11.7 for VfL Osnabrück
- Over 20.5 shots90%
- Over 22.5 shots84%
- Over 24.5 shots75%
Fouls
24.3 expected
12.9 for VfL Wolfsburg and 11.4 for VfL Osnabrück
- Over 20.5 fouls75%
- Over 22.5 fouls62%
- Over 24.5 fouls47%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 19:03 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.