Friday 30 October, 12:30
Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig
- Arminia Bielefeld44%
- Draw26%
- Eintracht Braunschweig30%
1.60 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld
1.27 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Arminia Bielefeld
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Arminia Bielefeld attack+26%
- Eintracht Braunschweig defence−16%
Expected goals1.60
Eintracht Braunschweig
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Eintracht Braunschweig attack+7%
- Arminia Bielefeld defence−13%
Expected goals1.27
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Over 3.5 goals32%
- Over 4.5 goals16%
- Both teams score58%
- Arminia Bielefeld or draw70%
- Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig56%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
6.0 for Arminia Bielefeld and 4.0 for Eintracht Braunschweig
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.8 for Arminia Bielefeld and 2.4 for Eintracht Braunschweig
- Over 3.5 cards61%
- Over 4.5 cards41%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
27.9 expected
17.0 for Arminia Bielefeld and 10.9 for Eintracht Braunschweig
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots76%
- Over 24.5 shots65%
Fouls
23.1 expected
12.2 for Arminia Bielefeld and 11.0 for Eintracht Braunschweig
- Over 20.5 fouls68%
- Over 22.5 fouls53%
- Over 24.5 fouls38%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.