Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

Friday 30 October, 13:00

Naestved vs Roskilde

  1. Naestved23%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Roskilde52%

1.12 expected goals for Naestved

1.82 expected goals for Roskilde

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Naestved

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Naestved attack+5%
  3. Roskilde defence−29%

Expected goals1.12

Roskilde

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Roskilde attack+68%
  2. Naestved defence−20%

Expected goals1.82

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 01:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.