Thursday 29 October, 09:00
Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala
- Krylia Sovetov43%
- Draw27%
- Dinamo Makhachkala30%
1.49 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov
1.05 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Krylia Sovetov
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Krylia Sovetov attack+32%
- Dinamo Makhachkala defence−26%
Expected goals1.49
Dinamo Makhachkala
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Dinamo Makhachkala attack+4%
- Krylia Sovetov defence−26%
Expected goals1.05
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals73%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals25%
- Over 4.5 goals11%
- Both teams score47%
- Krylia Sovetov or draw70%
- Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala57%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
6.0 for Krylia Sovetov and 4.1 for Dinamo Makhachkala
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.6 for Krylia Sovetov and 2.4 for Dinamo Makhachkala
- Over 3.5 cards56%
- Over 4.5 cards37%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
27.6 expected
16.6 for Krylia Sovetov and 11.0 for Dinamo Makhachkala
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots74%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
26.0 expected
12.4 for Krylia Sovetov and 13.6 for Dinamo Makhachkala
- Over 20.5 fouls84%
- Over 22.5 fouls73%
- Over 24.5 fouls59%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.