Probably Football

Matches

Cup (Russia)

Thursday 29 October, 13:45

Baltika vs Zenit

  1. Baltika22%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Zenit46%

0.71 expected goals for Baltika

1.21 expected goals for Zenit

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Baltika

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Baltika attack+20%
  3. Zenit defence−61%

Expected goals0.71

Zenit

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Zenit attack+96%
  2. Baltika defence−54%

Expected goals1.21

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals85%
  2. Over 1.5 goals58%
  3. Over 2.5 goals33%
  4. Over 3.5 goals13%
  5. Over 4.5 goals5%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.5 for Baltika and 5.0 for Zenit

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Baltika and 2.3 for Zenit

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

23.5 expected

11.4 for Baltika and 12.1 for Zenit

  1. Over 20.5 shots66%
  2. Over 22.5 shots53%
  3. Over 24.5 shots41%

Fouls

28.6 expected

17.6 for Baltika and 11.1 for Zenit

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls75%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.