Saturday 31 October, 01:00
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
- Vissel Kobe51%
- Draw25%
- Nagoya Grampus24%
1.76 expected goals for Vissel Kobe
0.98 expected goals for Nagoya Grampus
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Vissel Kobe
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Vissel Kobe attack+26%
- Nagoya Grampus defence−8%
Expected goals1.76
Nagoya Grampus
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Nagoya Grampus attack+20%
- Vissel Kobe defence−40%
Expected goals0.98
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals29%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score52%
- Vissel Kobe or draw76%
- Draw or Nagoya Grampus49%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.2 expected
4.9 for Vissel Kobe and 4.2 for Nagoya Grampus
- Over 8.5 corners54%
- Over 9.5 corners43%
- Over 10.5 corners33%
Cards
3.4 expected
1.3 for Vissel Kobe and 2.1 for Nagoya Grampus
- Over 3.5 cards44%
- Over 4.5 cards25%
- Over 5.5 cards13%
Shots
26.8 expected
15.4 for Vissel Kobe and 11.4 for Nagoya Grampus
- Over 20.5 shots81%
- Over 22.5 shots71%
- Over 24.5 shots60%
Fouls
21.9 expected
10.7 for Vissel Kobe and 11.3 for Nagoya Grampus
- Over 20.5 fouls59%
- Over 22.5 fouls44%
- Over 24.5 fouls29%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 13:03 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.