Saturday 31 October, 00:00
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Mito Hollyhock15%
- Draw22%
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima63%
0.78 expected goals for Mito Hollyhock
2.47 expected goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Mito Hollyhock
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Mito Hollyhock attack−15%
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence−39%
Expected goals0.78
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack+57%
- Mito Hollyhock defence+16%
Expected goals2.47
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals41%
- Over 4.5 goals23%
- Both teams score51%
- Mito Hollyhock or draw37%
- Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima85%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.8 expected
4.4 for Mito Hollyhock and 5.4 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Over 8.5 corners60%
- Over 9.5 corners49%
- Over 10.5 corners39%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.5 for Mito Hollyhock and 2.0 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Over 3.5 cards48%
- Over 4.5 cards29%
- Over 5.5 cards15%
Shots
25.2 expected
8.4 for Mito Hollyhock and 16.8 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Over 20.5 shots73%
- Over 22.5 shots62%
- Over 24.5 shots50%
Fouls
20.6 expected
10.6 for Mito Hollyhock and 10.1 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Over 20.5 fouls49%
- Over 22.5 fouls34%
- Over 24.5 fouls21%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 12:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.