Saturday 31 October, 01:00
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
- Kashima58%
- Draw21%
- Cerezo Osaka21%
2.30 expected goals for Kashima
1.11 expected goals for Cerezo Osaka
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Kashima
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Kashima attack+61%
- Cerezo Osaka defence−6%
Expected goals2.30
Cerezo Osaka
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Cerezo Osaka attack+21%
- Kashima defence−33%
Expected goals1.11
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Over 3.5 goals44%
- Over 4.5 goals26%
- Both teams score55%
- Kashima or draw80%
- Draw or Cerezo Osaka42%
- No draw79%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.7 expected
5.0 for Kashima and 3.8 for Cerezo Osaka
- Over 8.5 corners49%
- Over 9.5 corners38%
- Over 10.5 corners29%
Cards
3.7 expected
1.2 for Kashima and 2.5 for Cerezo Osaka
- Over 3.5 cards50%
- Over 4.5 cards31%
- Over 5.5 cards17%
Shots
25.5 expected
15.9 for Kashima and 9.6 for Cerezo Osaka
- Over 20.5 shots76%
- Over 22.5 shots65%
- Over 24.5 shots53%
Fouls
22.9 expected
10.5 for Kashima and 12.4 for Cerezo Osaka
- Over 20.5 fouls66%
- Over 22.5 fouls51%
- Over 24.5 fouls36%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 13:03 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.