Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Rodez vs Dunkerque

  1. Rodez40%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Dunkerque33%

1.75 expected goals for Rodez

1.59 expected goals for Dunkerque

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rodez

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rodez attack+37%
  3. Dunkerque defence−15%

Expected goals1.75

Dunkerque

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Dunkerque attack+32%
  2. Rodez defence−11%

Expected goals1.59

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

6.4 for Rodez and 3.9 for Dunkerque

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Rodez and 2.4 for Dunkerque

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

27.3 expected

16.2 for Rodez and 11.1 for Dunkerque

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

28.2 expected

15.1 for Rodez and 13.2 for Dunkerque

  1. Over 20.5 fouls91%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls83%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls73%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.