Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Reims vs Sochaux

  1. Reims54%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Sochaux19%

1.78 expected goals for Reims

0.87 expected goals for Sochaux

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Reims

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Reims attack+60%
  3. Sochaux defence−26%

Expected goals1.78

Sochaux

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sochaux attack+3%
  2. Reims defence−38%

Expected goals0.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.0 for Reims and 4.2 for Sochaux

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.6 for Reims and 2.1 for Sochaux

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

26.0 expected

14.6 for Reims and 11.4 for Sochaux

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

29.5 expected

15.0 for Reims and 14.4 for Sochaux

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls88%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls79%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.