Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy

  1. RED Star FC 9341%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Nancy30%

1.44 expected goals for RED Star FC 93

1.16 expected goals for Nancy

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

RED Star FC 93

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. RED Star FC 93 attack+29%
  3. Nancy defence−26%

Expected goals1.44

Nancy

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Nancy attack+13%
  2. RED Star FC 93 defence−24%

Expected goals1.16

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

4.9 for RED Star FC 93 and 4.2 for Nancy

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for RED Star FC 93 and 2.2 for Nancy

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

25.3 expected

13.6 for RED Star FC 93 and 11.7 for Nancy

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

30.4 expected

16.9 for RED Star FC 93 and 13.5 for Nancy

  1. Over 20.5 fouls95%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls91%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls83%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.