Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Nantes vs Clermont Foot

  1. Nantes45%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Clermont Foot26%

1.37 expected goals for Nantes

0.93 expected goals for Clermont Foot

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Nantes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Nantes attack+11%
  3. Clermont Foot defence−18%

Expected goals1.37

Clermont Foot

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Clermont Foot attack−5%
  2. Nantes defence−28%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.5 for Nantes and 4.1 for Clermont Foot

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for Nantes and 2.3 for Clermont Foot

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

24.6 expected

15.7 for Nantes and 8.9 for Clermont Foot

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

29.8 expected

15.7 for Nantes and 14.1 for Clermont Foot

  1. Over 20.5 fouls95%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls89%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls81%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.