Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Grenoble vs Dijon

  1. Grenoble34%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Dijon38%

1.15 expected goals for Grenoble

1.44 expected goals for Dijon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Grenoble

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Grenoble attack−8%
  3. Dijon defence−17%

Expected goals1.15

Dijon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Dijon attack+38%
  2. Grenoble defence−23%

Expected goals1.44

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.4 for Grenoble and 4.5 for Dijon

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Grenoble and 2.2 for Dijon

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

25.8 expected

13.1 for Grenoble and 12.7 for Dijon

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

30.3 expected

14.4 for Grenoble and 15.9 for Dijon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls95%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls90%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls83%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.