Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Annecy vs Montpellier

  1. Annecy35%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Montpellier35%

1.03 expected goals for Annecy

1.14 expected goals for Montpellier

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Annecy

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Annecy attack+34%
  3. Montpellier defence−49%

Expected goals1.03

Montpellier

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Montpellier attack+16%
  2. Annecy defence−28%

Expected goals1.14

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.7 for Annecy and 4.4 for Montpellier

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Annecy and 2.2 for Montpellier

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

24.6 expected

13.7 for Annecy and 11.0 for Montpellier

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

26.3 expected

14.0 for Annecy and 12.3 for Montpellier

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.