Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Friday 30 October, 14:00

Roda vs Jong AZ

  1. Roda46%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Jong AZ32%

1.90 expected goals for Roda

1.48 expected goals for Jong AZ

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Roda

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Roda attack−26%
  3. Jong AZ defence+69%

Expected goals1.90

Jong AZ

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Jong AZ attack+23%
  2. Roda defence−12%

Expected goals1.48

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

6.3 for Roda and 4.2 for Jong AZ

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for Roda and 2.2 for Jong AZ

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

29.0 expected

17.4 for Roda and 11.6 for Jong AZ

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

25.5 expected

11.6 for Roda and 13.9 for Jong AZ

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.