Friday 30 October, 14:00
Heracles vs FC OSS
- Heracles66%
- Draw19%
- FC OSS15%
2.71 expected goals for Heracles
1.13 expected goals for FC OSS
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Heracles
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Heracles attack+36%
- FC OSS defence+32%
Expected goals2.71
FC OSS
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- FC OSS attack−16%
- Heracles defence−1%
Expected goals1.13
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals98%
- Over 1.5 goals90%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Over 3.5 goals54%
- Over 4.5 goals34%
- Both teams score59%
- Heracles or draw85%
- Draw or FC OSS34%
- No draw81%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.0 expected
7.0 for Heracles and 4.0 for FC OSS
- Over 8.5 corners70%
- Over 9.5 corners60%
- Over 10.5 corners51%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.4 for Heracles and 2.2 for FC OSS
- Over 3.5 cards49%
- Over 4.5 cards30%
- Over 5.5 cards16%
Shots
32.4 expected
23.7 for Heracles and 8.6 for FC OSS
- Over 20.5 shots92%
- Over 22.5 shots86%
- Over 24.5 shots79%
Fouls
26.2 expected
11.8 for Heracles and 14.4 for FC OSS
- Over 20.5 fouls85%
- Over 22.5 fouls74%
- Over 24.5 fouls60%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.