Friday 30 October, 14:00
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven
- Helmond Sport38%
- Draw22%
- FC Eindhoven40%
1.81 expected goals for Helmond Sport
1.85 expected goals for FC Eindhoven
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Helmond Sport
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Helmond Sport attack−24%
- FC Eindhoven defence+58%
Expected goals1.81
FC Eindhoven
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- FC Eindhoven attack−16%
- Helmond Sport defence+63%
Expected goals1.85
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Over 3.5 goals50%
- Over 4.5 goals31%
- Both teams score62%
- Helmond Sport or draw60%
- Draw or FC Eindhoven62%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.4 expected
5.8 for Helmond Sport and 4.7 for FC Eindhoven
- Over 8.5 corners66%
- Over 9.5 corners56%
- Over 10.5 corners46%
Cards
4.5 expected
2.1 for Helmond Sport and 2.4 for FC Eindhoven
- Over 3.5 cards66%
- Over 4.5 cards47%
- Over 5.5 cards29%
Shots
28.7 expected
14.9 for Helmond Sport and 13.7 for FC Eindhoven
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
25.7 expected
13.8 for Helmond Sport and 11.9 for FC Eindhoven
- Over 20.5 fouls82%
- Over 22.5 fouls71%
- Over 24.5 fouls57%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.