Friday 30 October, 14:00
Emmen vs Den Bosch
- Emmen46%
- Draw22%
- Den Bosch32%
1.99 expected goals for Emmen
1.56 expected goals for Den Bosch
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Emmen
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Emmen attack−2%
- Den Bosch defence+34%
Expected goals1.99
Den Bosch
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Den Bosch attack−8%
- Emmen defence+25%
Expected goals1.56
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Over 3.5 goals47%
- Over 4.5 goals28%
- Both teams score61%
- Emmen or draw68%
- Draw or Den Bosch55%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.9 for Emmen and 4.3 for Den Bosch
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners44%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.7 for Emmen and 2.1 for Den Bosch
- Over 3.5 cards53%
- Over 4.5 cards34%
- Over 5.5 cards19%
Shots
26.5 expected
15.9 for Emmen and 10.6 for Den Bosch
- Over 20.5 shots80%
- Over 22.5 shots70%
- Over 24.5 shots58%
Fouls
24.3 expected
12.7 for Emmen and 11.6 for Den Bosch
- Over 20.5 fouls75%
- Over 22.5 fouls61%
- Over 24.5 fouls47%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 02:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.