Friday 30 October, 22:00
Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- Puebla28%
- Draw26%
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas46%
1.17 expected goals for Puebla
1.80 expected goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Puebla
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Puebla attack−19%
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence−4%
Expected goals1.17
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack+10%
- Puebla defence+20%
Expected goals1.80
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Over 3.5 goals35%
- Over 4.5 goals18%
- Both teams score57%
- Puebla or draw54%
- Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas72%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.7 expected
5.4 for Puebla and 5.2 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- Over 8.5 corners68%
- Over 9.5 corners58%
- Over 10.5 corners48%
Cards
3.4 expected
1.4 for Puebla and 2.0 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- Over 3.5 cards44%
- Over 4.5 cards26%
- Over 5.5 cards13%
Shots
26.6 expected
15.2 for Puebla and 11.4 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- Over 20.5 shots80%
- Over 22.5 shots70%
- Over 24.5 shots59%
Fouls
19.9 expected
10.2 for Puebla and 9.7 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- Over 20.5 fouls43%
- Over 22.5 fouls28%
- Over 24.5 fouls17%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 10:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.