Thursday 29 October, 12:30
Frosinone vs Lecce
- Frosinone59%
- Draw24%
- Lecce17%
1.98 expected goals for Frosinone
0.96 expected goals for Lecce
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Frosinone
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Frosinone attack+89%
- Lecce defence−31%
Expected goals1.98
Lecce
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Lecce attack−7%
- Frosinone defence−24%
Expected goals0.96
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals34%
- Over 4.5 goals17%
- Both teams score54%
- Frosinone or draw83%
- Draw or Lecce41%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
5.4 for Frosinone and 4.6 for Lecce
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.3 for Frosinone and 2.3 for Lecce
- Over 3.5 cards49%
- Over 4.5 cards30%
- Over 5.5 cards16%
Shots
31.5 expected
19.1 for Frosinone and 12.3 for Lecce
- Over 20.5 shots92%
- Over 22.5 shots87%
- Over 24.5 shots79%
Fouls
23.6 expected
11.4 for Frosinone and 12.1 for Lecce
- Over 20.5 fouls71%
- Over 22.5 fouls56%
- Over 24.5 fouls41%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.