Thursday 29 October, 14:45
Fiorentina vs Atalanta
- Fiorentina28%
- Draw27%
- Atalanta45%
1.34 expected goals for Fiorentina
1.65 expected goals for Atalanta
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Fiorentina
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Fiorentina attack+47%
- Atalanta defence−40%
Expected goals1.34
Atalanta
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Atalanta attack+69%
- Fiorentina defence−28%
Expected goals1.65
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals35%
- Over 4.5 goals18%
- Both teams score56%
- Fiorentina or draw55%
- Draw or Atalanta72%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
5.3 for Fiorentina and 4.2 for Atalanta
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners47%
- Over 10.5 corners37%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.7 for Fiorentina and 2.3 for Atalanta
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards37%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
27.9 expected
15.8 for Fiorentina and 12.2 for Atalanta
- Over 20.5 shots85%
- Over 22.5 shots76%
- Over 24.5 shots66%
Fouls
21.3 expected
10.2 for Fiorentina and 11.1 for Atalanta
- Over 20.5 fouls55%
- Over 22.5 fouls39%
- Over 24.5 fouls25%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.