Thursday 29 October, 19:30
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
- FBC Melgar68%
- Draw18%
- Comerciantes Unidos14%
2.12 expected goals for FBC Melgar
0.99 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
FBC Melgar
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- FBC Melgar attack+43%
- Comerciantes Unidos defence−2%
Expected goals2.12
Comerciantes Unidos
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Comerciantes Unidos attack+3%
- FBC Melgar defence−29%
Expected goals0.99
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Over 3.5 goals38%
- Over 4.5 goals20%
- Both teams score55%
- FBC Melgar or draw86%
- Draw or Comerciantes Unidos32%
- No draw82%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.3 expected
6.3 for FBC Melgar and 4.0 for Comerciantes Unidos
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners54%
- Over 10.5 corners44%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.8 for FBC Melgar and 2.2 for Comerciantes Unidos
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards36%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
31.9 expected
21.9 for FBC Melgar and 10.0 for Comerciantes Unidos
- Over 20.5 shots92%
- Over 22.5 shots86%
- Over 24.5 shots79%
Fouls
22.0 expected
11.9 for FBC Melgar and 10.1 for Comerciantes Unidos
- Over 20.5 fouls60%
- Over 22.5 fouls44%
- Over 24.5 fouls30%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.