Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Thursday 29 October, 13:00

Kalmar FF vs Gais

  1. Kalmar FF26%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Gais47%

0.82 expected goals for Kalmar FF

1.32 expected goals for Gais

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Kalmar FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Kalmar FF attack−12%
  3. Gais defence−38%

Expected goals0.82

Gais

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gais attack+13%
  2. Kalmar FF defence−14%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.1 for Kalmar FF and 4.4 for Gais

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.3 for Kalmar FF and 2.2 for Gais

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

26.1 expected

14.2 for Kalmar FF and 11.9 for Gais

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

27.0 expected

13.8 for Kalmar FF and 13.2 for Gais

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls78%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls66%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.