Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Thursday 29 October, 12:30

Hammarby FF vs Sirius

  1. Hammarby FF50%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Sirius26%

1.85 expected goals for Hammarby FF

1.16 expected goals for Sirius

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hammarby FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hammarby FF attack+55%
  3. Sirius defence−21%

Expected goals1.85

Sirius

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sirius attack+67%
  2. Hammarby FF defence−49%

Expected goals1.16

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.6 for Hammarby FF and 3.9 for Sirius

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.5 for Hammarby FF and 2.1 for Sirius

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

25.8 expected

16.8 for Hammarby FF and 9.0 for Sirius

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

23.3 expected

11.8 for Hammarby FF and 11.5 for Sirius

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.