Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Thursday 29 October, 19:30

Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense

  1. Gremio40%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Atletico Paranaense33%

1.26 expected goals for Gremio

1.37 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Gremio

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Gremio attack+36%
  3. Atletico Paranaense defence−38%

Expected goals1.26

Atletico Paranaense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Atletico Paranaense attack+76%
  2. Gremio defence−43%

Expected goals1.37

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.1 expected

5.1 for Gremio and 6.0 for Atletico Paranaense

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners62%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.4 for Gremio and 2.5 for Atletico Paranaense

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

31.4 expected

14.8 for Gremio and 16.6 for Atletico Paranaense

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

27.5 expected

13.4 for Gremio and 14.1 for Atletico Paranaense

  1. Over 20.5 fouls89%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls80%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls69%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.