Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Thursday 29 October, 17:30

Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro

  1. Atletico-MG40%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Cruzeiro33%

1.38 expected goals for Atletico-MG

1.49 expected goals for Cruzeiro

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico-MG

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico-MG attack+69%
  3. Cruzeiro defence−46%

Expected goals1.38

Cruzeiro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cruzeiro attack+103%
  2. Atletico-MG defence−46%

Expected goals1.49

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.6 expected

6.8 for Atletico-MG and 4.9 for Cruzeiro

  1. Over 8.5 corners75%
  2. Over 9.5 corners66%
  3. Over 10.5 corners57%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Atletico-MG and 2.4 for Cruzeiro

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

34.5 expected

19.7 for Atletico-MG and 14.9 for Cruzeiro

  1. Over 20.5 shots96%
  2. Over 22.5 shots93%
  3. Over 24.5 shots88%

Fouls

25.7 expected

13.1 for Atletico-MG and 12.6 for Cruzeiro

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls71%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls57%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.